A Deep Dive into Mill Hill Property Statistics over the Last Few Years

Mill Hill Cottages
Photo Credit: David Howard

Mill Hill is one of London’s most well-regarded residential areas. It rose to prominence in the 17th century with people flocking to the area to make the most of the leafy streets and peaceful green spaces.

This explains why some of the most popular properties on the market are elegant period buildings which have only grown in desirability over the years. There are also plenty of attractive modern apartments which are ideal for first-time buyers.

If you’re thinking about moving to Mill Hill it’s useful to have some insight into the local property market and the sales trends over the years. With that in mind, here’s an in-depth examination of Mill Hill’s property statistics during the last two decades.

Mill Hill property prices – a general overview

As with many London locations, Mill Hill’s average property prices have risen steadily since 2000; though the EU referendum and COVID pandemic both had an enormous impact on the market. The level of property sales dipped significantly after the 2008 housing crisis but have been steadily climbing since then.

Overall, the data speaks for itself. Though Mill Hill’s market has been affected by various global and national events in the last two decades, homes have increased in value with the average property price being much higher than it was back in 2000.

2000 to 2008 – Before the housing crisis

Prior to the 2008 property slump, house prices in Mill Hill were on the rise. In 2000, an average house cost just £224,582 while an apartment was priced at around £110,570. These affordable figures were about to change rapidly though.

A year later average house prices in Mill Hill had climbed to £229,571. Apartment prices had experienced even more impressive growth rising to £134,075. That’s an increase of over £23,500 in just twelve months.

The sharp price-hike showed no signs of slowing down. By 2004 an average house cost £341,851 and an average flat was £224,714. At this point apartment prices started to stabilise and only experienced an increase of £26,870 over the next four years, however, house prices grew by over £110,000; a much more notable rise.

Likewise, the market was extremely active from 2000 to 2008. It hit a peak in 2002 with 775 houses and 370 flats being sold that year and 2007 was nearly as busy too with 760 house and 364 flat sales.

2008 – financial instability hits the market

2008 Global Financial Crisis affect on the Mill Hill Property Market
Photo Credit: David Howard

2008 is a year that’s remembered by many – thanks to the enormous financial upheaval and its subsequent impact on the property market.

It was a situation that several experts anticipated but few predicted it would be so severe. As Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, commented at the time: “The disruption in the financial markets worsened throughout 2008 and had larger implications for the real economy than we anticipated a year ago. We did not anticipate the speed of house price falls or the extent of the global and domestic economic slowdown.”

Nationwide’s survey (2008) revealed that UK house prices fell by 15.9% - the largest price drop on record. The recession then impacted the market further with mortgage lenders being more restrictive with their terms and homebuyers warier of committing. Interestingly, despite the financial turmoil London property prices remained the highest in the country.

During this time the number of homes being sold in Mill Hill dropped significantly. In 2007 760 houses had been sold – in 2008 this figure had plummeted to just 337. Apartment sales fared no better sinking from 364 in 2007 to just 207 the year after.

Mill Hill’s property prices were also affected. The average cost of a house in the area was £451,922 in 2008; a year later this had dropped to £399,925 – a decrease of over £50,000. Apartments weren’t as badly impacted though. In 2008 the average price was £251,584; this was down to £236,485 the year after. That’s a reduction of around £15,000.

2008 to 2015 – a slow climb back to normality

The market remained slow after the financial crisis. In the five years following 2008 the number of yearly house sales failed to exceed 431, which was considerably less than previous years. Average Mill Hill property prices took a further dip in 2009 then slowly started to recover. By 2013 an average house in the area cost £538,649 and a flat cost £298,977 – a good-sized increase over a five-year period.

This was partially due to some government incentives introduced to stimulate the market such as the removal of stamp duty for first-time buyers (2010) and the introduction of the Help to Buy Scheme (2013).

It’s also important to note that foreign investment kept the capital’s property market more buoyant than other parts of the country. Thanks to overseas buyers some areas of London saw meteoric rises in property prices and while Mill Hill didn’t experience the rapid price-hikes of locations like Kensington or Chelsea it still held its own relatively well.

The growing buy-to-let market also had an impact. Increasing numbers of landlords invested in properties in the city which, in turn, helped to propel the market.

The lasting impact of Brexit

Mill Hill Pond
Photo Credit: Matt Brown

In 2016 the EU referendum took place and the results shook the country. The impact of the Brexit decision on London’s property market was immediate and pronounced.

Numbers of cuts to asking prices rose by 163% in the 12 days that followed the referendum results when compared to the 12 days leading up to the vote. One agent commented at the time: “This is a very, very different market to a week ago. I’m now trying to do deals 10% below where they were a week ago and Central London is already down 10 to 15% from its peak.”

However, it wasn’t all dismal news for the market. Again, increased overseas interest kept prices stable in many locations across the capital along with landlords wanting to cash in on a rising number of tenants seeking accommodation.

Once again Mill Hill’s property market performed well despite the political upheaval. For example, in 2016 the average house was selling for £692,876. The following year this price had risen to £837,407 – one of the most impressive price increases to date.

The aftermath of Brexit

It’s safe to say that the departure from the EU caused substantial turbulence in London’s property market. Despite this it wasn’t quite the ‘doom and gloom’ picture that experts painted at the time. Back in 2016 ex-chancellor George Osborne claimed that house prices would fall by 18% in the wake of Brexit. This dire prediction was proved incorrect – in fact, house prices continued to rise in many parts of the country.

Mill Hill suffered somewhat in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. In fact, average property prices fell from £743,744 in 2018 to £714,370 the following year. Flats were similarly affected with prices decreasing from £428,101 to £388,331.

This may have been due to investor wariness particularly as a ‘no-deal’ Brexit outcome looked increasingly more likely as time went on. Homebuyers were increasingly unwilling to commit to investing in property during such unpredictable times which was a logical response to the situation.

Some investors chose a different approach, cashing in on the reduced prices with the intention of making good profit from capital growth over time. This may explain why volumes of apartment sales were up in 2019 – with 143 more being sold in that year than the year before.

COVID brings the market to a halt

COVID Affect on Mill Hill Property Market
Photo Credit: David Howard

No-one could have predicted the cataclysmic events of 2020. At the start of the year Mill Hill’s property market was performing well and starting to recover from their drop in the previous year. Then in March the entire country was put into lockdown as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This had an enormous, immediate impact on house sales. Viewings were not allowed to take place and as such very few offers were made. Unsurprisingly, volumes of sales plummeted. Other factors further impeded the property market such as mass unemployment and salary cuts. As a result, homebuyers were reluctant to commit to a mortgage especially when they felt their jobs were at risk.

All this soon changed. In July 2020 chancellor Rishi Sunak introduced a stamp duty holiday for buyers – with no stamp duty due to be paid on any property priced at under £500,000 and a reduced amount of tax for homes costing above this. This created a sudden surge in interest across the UK and Mill Hill was no exception. Numbers of viewings rose substantially after lockdown and property prices started rising again.

In Mill Hill the average cost of a house increased to £708,301 – almost back to what it was the previous year. As the stamp duty holiday is coming to an end on 31st March it’s anticipated that this level of interest may only last for a short while longer.

What do Mill Hill property prices look like post COVID-19?

Despite 2021 posing several economic challenges, the local property market in Mill Hill continued to thrive. This was aided in part by the stamp duty break which ended at the end of June, with buyers eager to make the most of the extended window.

Sold prices were up 11% on the previous year, averaging around £770,000. This was also 3% up on the peak of £749,000 previously reached in 2017, making it a great year for sellers who were able to maximise the value of their properties. Buyers were winners too, as the stamp duty break cut down costs and confidence was restored that the buying process could return to pre-pandemic normality.

Even with the uncertainties of lockdowns and an increase in COVID-19 infection rates, the housing market continued to provide a measure of certainty. People spent more time at home and began to look for more space, while the low interest rates also helped to subsidise the market.

Mill Hill’s property market in the next five years?

Mill Hill Property Market
Photo Credit: David Howard

The immediate future of Mill Hill’s property market remains very optimistic. With professionals returning to the capital post-pandemic, there are a growing number of investment opportunities available within the flats sector.

As of April 2022, house prices in Barnet are up 5% month-on-month, while also being 6.2% higher than at the same time last year. Prices may still be on the rise at present, but the greater London market, which excludes properties located in central London, continues to provide a more affordable alternative to the high price tags that come with setting up home in the centre of the capital. 

This offers some assurance about the state of the local market in the next five years. Mill Hill provides the space and change of pace many house buyers are looking for, while price levels appeal to professionals as well as families. Of course, there are always variables that can unexpectedly change the direction of the market, but as it stands, the outlook for the Mill Hill property market looks as healthy as ever.

Ready to buy in Mill Hill?

If you’re thinking of buying a property in Mill Hill, talk to Squires Estates. We’ve got a wide range of homes available to buy in the area; from affordable one-bedroomed apartments with a balcony, to expansive family homes with generously sized gardens.

To find out more about living in this location or to get information about the best streets, schools, amenities and more, simply get in touch with our team today.